市场分析公司Bridge to India在其最新报告中预测,印度太阳能在2017年可能增长9.4吉瓦,使它超越日本,成为全球第三大太阳能市场。
这一题为《印度太阳能指南针》的报告称,截至6月底,印度累计光伏容量为15611兆瓦,其中13951兆瓦为公用事业规模,1660兆瓦为屋顶太阳能。预计2017年印度太阳能增长90%,屋顶太阳能也将强劲增长。太阳能成本将不断下降。所有这些对国际投资者和设备供应商而言都是巨大的吸引力。而所面临的挑战则是如何维持这样的增长。
印度Q2的电价打破了INR 3.00/kwh的阈值,Bridge to India将其称为一个“关键”时刻,因为这意味着太阳能现在成为了印度最价廉的新能源。
未来两年,印度将完全过渡至1500伏直流电源系统。跟踪控制装置预计将从Q2的450兆瓦增加到Q3的800兆瓦,但组件价格的下降可能会限制跟踪器的采用。
其他趋势包括债务条件的软化将成为投资活动的润滑剂;将出现并购高潮;太阳能和风力发电的激励政策和支持机制逐渐退出等。
近期而言,目前的反倾销调查所造成的不确定性可能使安装速度减缓。由于竞争日渐激烈迫使电价不断下降,这一阶段仍令项目开发商和投资者不安。
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