国际可再生能源机构(IRENA)上周在第八届IRENA大会上报告称,至2020年所有形式的可再生能源将可与常规发电在成本上相竞争。
IRENA表示,大型太阳能光伏在这一竞争中一马当先,具有里程碑式的意义。同时指出,自2010年以来,公用事业级太阳能的平准化度电成本(LCOE)已经下降了73%,且预测至2020年将再下降一半。
这一报告还列出了全球可再生能源项目成本图表,绘制了各自的学习曲线,并将它们与传统电力来源(如煤、天然气和核能等)进行了比较。报告发现,全球公用事业规模的太阳能加权成本,在2017年新投产的项目中已经下降到$0.03/kWh。
中东北非及南美地区的光伏电站项目在过去的两年中创下了历史性的新低价格。IRENA预测,从2018年起,大型太阳能在合适的条件下价格将降至$0.03/kWh。技术进步、竞争性采购,大量的经验、活跃的国际性项目开发商是成本大幅下降的因素。同时还指出了实现低价的六个条件:有利的法规和制度支持、项目所在国的低国家风险、强大的工程基地、有利的税收、低项目开发成本、以及一个良好的可再生资源来源。
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