隆基太阳能上周宣布，未来三年将大幅提高单晶硅片的产能，这有可能导致今年下半年单晶硅供应严重过剩。
独立太阳能分析师Corrine Lin表示，今年全球单晶圆的需求量可能在40吉瓦左右。 而隆基太阳能的计划是在年底达到28吉瓦的产能，将超过保利协鑫(GCL)成为全球最大的单晶圆供应商。
这两家供应商今年的目标产量相加(GCL 23吉瓦+隆基28吉瓦)，极有可能将2018年的全球单晶圆供应量从去年的44.5吉瓦增至73吉瓦。根据预测，全球的光伏需求在95吉瓦到105吉瓦之间，而单晶产品预计将占40％，下半年单晶硅供需极可能会出现不平衡。Lin认为，在此种情况下，单晶硅的价格可能会在年内大幅下滑，迫使许多较小的单晶硅供应商退出市场。“即使是顶级的晶圆公司，其利润率也可能大幅缩水，远低于去年。”
Lin预测，2019年全球的单晶硅产能将达到83吉瓦，而2020年将达93吉瓦。
来源： www.pv-magazine.com
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