英国研究公司IDTechEx的数据显示,不断发展中的电动公交车(包括太阳能车身)充电技术正在帮助降低电动公交车(EBUS)的电池成本,并加快其实现与柴油公交车同价。
IDTechEx预测到2030年左右,EBUS将有能力在价格上与柴油公交车相抗衡。而这要归功于非电池充电方案的科技进步,这其中包括集成光伏、间歇性高空轨道和线圈、公交车站充电和10秒超级电容器充电。
IDTechEx在其《2019-2029电动公交车及卡车储能报告》一文中表示,由于柴油动力传动系统处理排放成本的不断上升,EBUS开始在成本上具有竞争力。同时,多种充电方式意味着到2029年,电池成本可能仅占EBUS总成本的6%。
研究人员对全球市场进行了调查,并发现中国取消补贴,让这一全球最大EBUS市场的需求量骤降,但如果太阳能电力能达到电网平价,就可能出现新需求的激增——而这也是中国政府希望能在2021年初实现的目标。
印度也将在EBUS领域发挥突出的作用。印度政府有意逐步淘汰该国160万辆柴油公交车,且已有规划订购第一批10,000台EBUS,北阿坎德邦也订购了500台,占据了中国以外市场约四分之一的订单。
此外,哈萨克斯坦、阿塞拜疆、英国、波兰、瑞典、比利时以及荷兰市场目前均有可观的EBUS订单。
IDTechEx还预测,小型电动汽车最早可在2023年实现与常规汽车平价。
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