荷兰应用科学研究组织(Organisation for Applied Scientific Research, TNO)表示,可再生能源不仅将带来更价廉的能源系统,而且还将创造出更多新的商业、出口和就业机会和更清洁的环境。
该机构在其报告《能源将变得更价廉》中写道,如果有更多的投资用于可再生能源研发,荷兰的能源转型成本可更低。
报告作者描述了至2050年的两种情况:太阳能和风能发电成本稳步下降;及成本急剧下降,特别是光伏发电。作者声称,“单是太阳能和风能成本的大幅下降,就能使能源转型的总投资成本降低10%以上”,并表示其他如储能、LED照明、生物燃料和氢气等技术目前正处于其学习曲线的早期阶段,均具有降低成本的巨大潜力。
报告显示,太阳能发电的成本在5年内下降了4倍,中东地区的发电成本有可能低于0.025欧元/千瓦时。“如果继续投资技术创新,太阳能和风能的成本削减将在未来几年继续延续。”这意味着与传统发电相比,投资太阳能和风能将变得越来越具有吸引力。
报告作者还补充说,目前太阳能和风能的成功,不仅取决于部署于全球的大量容量,还取决于活跃于该行业的研发机构和公司所进行的应用研究。报告认为,有针对性的创新投资不仅可以显著降低能源转型的成本,还可以确保带来可观的宏观经济和社会效益。报告指出:“如果我们继续广泛投资于创新、新技术和生产工艺的开发、以及明智的转型规划,将会产生更多的业务、出口、就业机会并带来更清洁的环境。”
截至2018年底,荷兰的累计光伏装机容量为4.2吉瓦。预计明年将达到6吉瓦,到2035年将达20吉瓦。
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