上周,美国Lazard发布了针对能源的平准化能源成本(LCOE)分析15.0版以及针对储能的7.0版。
该投资银行表示,如同去年的报告所述,美国公用事业规模的(薄膜和晶体硅)太阳能以及风能的LCOE是考量的所有能源当中最低的。
无补贴大型晶体硅光伏发电的LCOE估计为0.030-0.042美元/千瓦时,市电平价薄膜太阳能电站的LCOE为0.028-0.037美元/千瓦时。相比之下,Lazard的2020年报告称,晶体硅的LCOE为0.031-0.042美元/千瓦时,薄膜为0.029-0.038美元/千瓦时。
住宅光伏的LCOE为0.147-0.221美元/千瓦时,而工商业屋顶太阳能的LCOE为0.067-0.180美元/千瓦时。
风能仍然是最实惠的电力来源,其LCOE为0.026-0.050美元/千瓦时,略低于去年的0.026-0.054美元/千瓦时。但Lazard强调,公用事业规模太阳能的成本下降幅度继续高于陆上风能。
在常规能源当中,联合循环燃气的LCOE最低,为0.045-0.074美元/千瓦时,煤炭和核能的LCOE分别为0.065-0.152和0.131-0.204美元/千瓦时。
Lazard表示:“如果包括美国政府补贴,则陆上风电和公用事业规模太阳能发电的成本将继续可与煤炭、核能和燃气联合循环发电的边际成本相竞争。”将这些补贴包括在内,太阳能的LCOE可达到0.027美元/千瓦时,风能达到0.025美元/千瓦时,而煤炭和核能分别可以达到0.042和0.024美元/千瓦时。
Lazard报告称,就美国市场的平准化储能成本(LCOS)而言,在现货市场上运行的、容量为100 MW/100 MWh的无补贴储能项目能够提供0.160-0.279美元/千瓦时的价值,而容量为100 MW/200 MWh和100 MW/400 MWh的设施分别为0.146-0.257和0.131-0.232美元/千瓦时。容量为50 MW/200 MWh的太阳能加储能项目预计可达到0.085-0.158美元/千瓦时。
在住宅细分领域,太阳能加储能装置据说达到了0.416-0.621美元/千瓦时。而在商业细分领域,这一价值估计为0.235-0.335美元/千瓦时。
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