燃气发电的累计成本与新型潜在可再生能源发电量。
图片：Rystad Energy
挪威能源研究机构Rystad Energy的最新研究表明，在欧洲新建太阳能发电站比继续长期运营燃气发电厂要便宜10倍。
自从俄罗斯削减天然气出口以来，欧洲的天然气价格飙升，今年迄今为止荷兰产权转让设施（TTF）现货交易价格已上升至平均134欧元（135.15美元）/MWh。据Rystad预测，到2030年价格将稳定在31欧元/ MWh左右，使得现有燃气发电厂的LCOE更加接近150欧元/ MWh。
该机构发表声明称：“这仍然相当于新建太阳能光伏设施LCOE的三倍。燃气发电厂想要继续保持竞争力，天然气价格需要降至接近17欧元/ MWh的水平，碳价格需要降至每吨10欧元，这在目前来看是难以想象的。”
Rystad Energy电力市场主管Carlos Torres Diaz表示：“在未来一段时间内，天然气将继续在欧洲能源结构中发挥重要作用。除非发生根本性的变化，否则简单经济学以及气候问题将令天平朝着可再生能源的方向倾斜。”
Rystad预测，如果将燃气基金投资于可再生能源，则到2028年欧洲将用太阳能和陆上风力发电取代燃气发电，届时总发电量将达到333 GW。这种估算假设各项技术的加权平均资本成本为1.3欧元/瓦，且前期开发阶段持续两年的时间。
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