弗劳恩霍夫太阳能系统研究所(Fraunhofer ISE)的一份最新报告显示,目前德国太阳能光伏发电的平准化能源成本(LCOE)在€0.041 ($0.049)/kWh到€0.144/kWh之间。
这意味着,太阳能是该国最便宜的电力来源,其次是风能(其平准化能源成本从€0.043/kWh到€0.92/kWh不等)。该报告显示,“地面光伏系统和陆上风力涡轮机是德国最具成本效益的技术,这不仅体现在可再生能源领域,而且还体现在所有类型的发电厂中。”
德国研究中心的专家还估计,光伏系统的成本在€700/kW到€2,000/kW之间,具体取决于系统规模和太阳辐射水平,而风力发电厂的成本在€1,300/kW到€1,900/kW之间。
该报告还显示,当前光伏装置相关电池的平准化能源成本在€0.060/kWh到0.225/kWh之间,电池成本估计在€400/kWh到€1,000/kWh之间。
展望未来,研究人员预测,到2045年,公用事业规模光伏系统的平准化能源成本可能在€0.031/kWh到€0.050/kWh之间。他们还预计,屋顶光伏系统的平准化能源成本将达到€0.049/kWh到€0.10/kWh之间。
“预计到2045年,光伏系统的价格将下降,其中地面光伏系统的价格可能降至€460/kW以下,而小型光伏系统的价格可能降至€660/kW到€1,306/kW之间,”他们表示,“预计到2035年,光伏电池系统发电的平均成本将显著低于联合循环燃气轮机发电厂。”
他们还指出,如果电池成本在€180/kWh到€700/kWh之间,电池相关光伏系统的平准化能源成本可能达到€0.07/kWh到€0.19/kWh。
“这些计算结果表明,德国目前正在启动的大型项目,包括地面光伏系统、风力发电场和固定式电池储能系统,都是不错的投资,”弗劳恩霍夫太阳能系统研究所能源系统分析部门负责人兼本研究主要作者Christoph Kost表示,“例如,将不同系统组合起来,可以更好地利用电网容量。”
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